Lithium mine costs soar, Morgan Stanley warns it will destroy electric vehicle demand

The rising price of lithium ore has forced the cost of batteries to rise, and it has also forced the price of electric vehicles to follow suit. Morgan Stanley believes this will further reduce EV profits and even collapse the demand side.

At the same time as nickel prices are rising, don’t forget the most important raw material for lithium batteries. The price of lithium ore has risen by five times in the past year. Morgan Stanley’s latest research report shows that Chinese lithium battery manufacturers may The price was increased by 25% in response to soaring raw material prices.

Since lithium batteries are the most expensive components of electric vehicles, analysts estimate that this will result in automakers having to increase the price of electric vehicles by 15% to maintain their cost structure.

“The cost of lithium batteries has been decreasing by 3% to 7% year after year, which has almost become a law.” Analyst Jack Lu pointed out that the world is not static, and the price of mineral resources has skyrocketed, destroying the price trend of continuous decline in battery costs and building a new order. .

Experts originally predicted that the cost of lithium batteries will continue to decline with technological progress, making electric vehicles more affordable. Unexpectedly, various car manufacturers frantically pursue electrification transformation, resulting in a shortage of batteries, which in turn leads to a shortage of raw ore supply, causing costs to skyrocket from the source.

Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, the two largest suppliers of lithium mines in China, are expected to get rid of consecutive losses this year and pay for substantial growth.

According to a Morgan Stanley report, most of China’s battery suppliers are buying raw materials in the bulk market, rather than supplying through long-term contracts. In the past, this was a good way to curb costs. Allows lithium miners to raise prices quickly.

Rising costs may lead to slower growth in the overall electric vehicle market, but Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla may receive the least impact, and gave an “overweight” evaluation with a target price of $1,300. Obviously, Tesla is researching new battery technology that can reduce the demand for raw materials. On the other hand, it also has an exclusive source of lithium ore supply. Finally, don’t forget that when the price of all electric vehicles increases, it is not too cheap. Sla, it’s easier for consumers with limited budgets to pinch to upgrade.

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Musk: The war has caused a surge in raw materials, and the company is facing huge inflationary pressures

The Ukrainian-Russian war has always supported Ukraine, Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Elon Musk) recently said that the inflation caused by the war has put Tesla and SpaceX’s raw materials and logistics under severe pressure.

According to Reuters, Musk tweeted that the Ukrainian-Russian war has pushed commodity prices to their highest since 2008. He cites aluminum for cars, palladium for motor converters, and nickel for electric vehicle batteries, whose prices have continued to soar, making it imperative for Tesla products to pass on higher costs to consumers. Tesla and SpaceX have yet to respond to Musk’s remarks.

Soaring raw material prices have sparked market doubts about the economics of electric vehicles. After traditional automakers and suppliers eased the chip shortage, they are preparing to launch new cars in 2022. Market analysts pointed out that, just like the easing shortage of semiconductor chips, Ukraine The Russian war has caused new disruptions to the supply of basic materials and led to worrying price spikes.

The report quoted analysts at Wells Fargo Bank as saying that the price of nickel, a key battery material, has risen 130% this year, while the prices of cobalt, lithium and aluminum have soared 16% to 88%. Tesla last week raised prices for its most popular SUVs and sedans in China and the U.S. by $1,000, while fellow EV maker Rivian Automotive also noted plans to cut production in half. Not long ago, Japan’s Toyota Motor also said it would cut production in the second quarter due to supply chain problems.

Electric vehicle start-up Rivian is actively expanding production, aiming to account for 10% of the market by 2030

Electric vehicle startup Rivian, which is backed by Amazon.com, has a much-anticipated prospect. Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe said on the 24th that the Normal, Illinois, assembly plant is gradually expanding production, with the goal of grabbing 10% of the market by 2030.

Reuters reported that Scaringe attended the 2022 Wolfe Research Global Automotive Industry Conference on the 24th, saying that the Normo plant has made progress in increasing the production of electric vehicles, and hopes to achieve a 10% market share in the electric vehicle market in 2030.

On the 24th, Rivian’s shares soared 10.74% to close at $63.71.

Scaringe mentioned that the continuous shortage of global automotive chips is the most important factor limiting the scale of production expansion. Rivian’s actual production in 2021 is 1,015 units, 185 units less than the original target of 1,200 units, citing supply chain bottlenecks and battery production constraints.

Scaringe pointed out that Rivian is building its own battery production line, then trial production, and plans to jointly invest in production with suppliers. The current Rivian battery supplier is Samsung SDI. He also said that Rivian will work to ensure the safe supply of key battery raw materials such as lithium and nickel.

Amazon is Rivian’s big financier, holding 20% ​​of Rivian’s shares. Rivian has signed a contract with Amazon to produce 100,000 electric vans for Amazon by 2025.

In November 2021, Rivian was listed on the US stock market, and the IPO raised $13.7 billion, the largest IPO since 2014. On the fifth trading day of its listing, Rivian’s stock price hit a record closing high of $172.01, once becoming the world’s third most valuable automaker, after Tesla and Toyota.

The rich are different, Musk secretly donated $5 billion in stock

According to Tesla’s filings, Musk donated a total of 5 million Tesla shares to charity in November last year, which is equivalent to $5 billion based on the stock price at the time. Curious, who was it donated to?

At the end of November 2021, Tesla CEO Elon Musk donated a total of 5.044 million shares of Tesla common stock to an unnamed charitable organization, according to the SEC’s fifth category.

According to Tesla’s stock price of about $1,050 at the end of November last year, Musk’s donation was worth as much as $5 billion. The subtle thing is that Musk did not publicize this matter himself, nor did he say who it was donated to, which triggered netizens. A bit of guesswork.

The first unit to be named was the United Nations’ World Food Program. When Musk became the world’s richest man, WFP said that as long as these billionaires are willing to donate a little of their wealth, they can improve world hunger. question, which caused Musk to question.

Musk mentioned in the post that if the World Food Program can explain how $6 billion can fight famine, he is willing to sell Tesla stock to do it. WFP certainly didn’t miss out on the most successful fundraising opportunity in history, and then put up their detailed “The Rich to Save the Hunger” plan, explaining how they would use the donation.

Although Musk did not respond to WFP’s plan, the time and amount of the two events were very close, so they were considered to be Musk’s donations.

The second possible object is the Texas Institute of Technology and Science that Musk once mentioned to be founded, which echoes Tesla’s move of its headquarters to Texas, and hopes to cultivate more locally. Remote Programs for Talent.

Of course, this is also related to Musk’s love of telling jokes, because the abbreviation of this institute is TITS, which is the same as the common name for female breasts by American netizens.

The eccentric Musk, even when many people attacked him for selling stocks to cash out, manipulating the stock market and cryptocurrencies, did not talk about donations. Obviously, he deeply understands the truth of “haters always be haters”. Of course, this is not a sudden act of kindness. After all, Musk was also forced by the new U.S. tax system and had to sell some of his stocks. Rather than all the money being taken away by the government, it would definitely make more sense to donate it.

After all, who this donation, which is equivalent to the annual revenue of many listed companies, falls, I am afraid that we can only know if Musk himself responds.

49 “Starlink” satellites encountered a geomagnetic storm, and 40 were damaged the day after launch

SpaceX said that as many as 40 of the 49 “Starlink” satellites it launched on the 3rd of this month were damaged the next day due to a geomagnetic storm. This is believed to be the largest damage to a satellite caused by a single geomagnetic storm.

【Rescue failed】

The official website of SpaceX released an update on the 8th saying that the company routinely launched 49 “Starlink” satellites to an orbit lower than the predetermined orbital altitude on the 3rd, and prepared to conduct preliminary testing on these satellites. into a predetermined orbit 210 kilometers above the ground.

“Unfortunately”, SpaceX said, a geomagnetic storm that occurred on the 4th severely affected the satellites, warming the atmosphere in the area where the satellites are located, increasing density and increasing atmospheric drag by up to 50 percent from previous launch levels .

The “Starlink” team then controlled the satellite to enter a safe flight mode, allowing the satellite to fly “sideways” to reduce atmospheric drag. However, most satellites have never been able to return to normal mode once they have gone into safe mode, so “up to 40 satellites will re-enter or have re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere.”

SpaceX said the risk of a deorbiting satellite colliding with other satellites is “zero” and will burn up after re-entry, leaving no debris left in space or debris falling to the ground.

【Ignore the warning? 】

According to Reuters, before the launch of these “Starlink” satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center had predicted a possible geomagnetic storm. The center previously warned that a strong solar flare was detected on January 29, and the ejected material and energy may reach Earth as early as February 1, and the geomagnetic storm caused by it may last until February 3.

Flares are events in which a localized region of the Sun’s atmosphere suddenly brightens, accompanied by strongly enhanced electromagnetic radiation, solar proton events (large streams of high-energy charged particles), and coronal mass ejections. After the material and energy of these active jets reach the near-Earth space, they will strongly disturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and upper atmosphere, causing geomagnetic storms.

Jonathan McDowell, an expert at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, believes that the damage caused by the geomagnetic storm to the satellite this time is the largest single-scale damage, and it is also the first time that the increase in atmospheric density has caused large-scale damage to the satellite.

McDowell said it was unclear whether the increase in atmospheric drag caused by geomagnetic storms exceeded the limits of what the satellite was designed to withstand, or whether SpaceX mistakenly believed that the satellite could withstand such drag. He said that from what SpaceX said, they didn’t expect to have to deal with such atmospheric drag, “as if they didn’t pay attention to space weather forecasts.”

CNN quoted Bill Murta, program coordinator at the Center for Space Weather Prediction, as saying that people in charge of satellite launches usually pay close attention to space weather before launch, but different companies judge whether space weather affects the criteria for launching. different.

SpaceX has yet to respond to media inquiries about the company’s assessment of space weather prior to launch.

【Loss unknown】

The economic damage caused by the incident is unclear. SpaceX has not disclosed the cost of Starlink satellites. According to CNN, company president Gwen Shotwell said in 2019 that each satellite would cost well under $1 million.

According to Reuters, the “Starlink” project previously planned to launch 12,000 low-altitude orbit satellites into space between 2019 and 2024 to build a network to provide Internet services, and then increased the planned number to about 30,000.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, posted on social media on January 15 that the “Starlink” project has nearly 1,500 satellites in operation, and another 272 satellites are on their way to predetermined orbits.

Before the “Starlink” satellite reaches the predetermined orbit, it will undergo preliminary testing at a lower altitude. If there is a problem, it will re-enter the earth’s atmosphere under the operation of ground controllers and burn up in the process, so as not to interfere with other satellites. SpaceX said it’s rare for a satellite to reveal problems at this stage, and the step was arranged just in case.

The growth of electric vehicles is felt, and the carbon emissions of new cars in the UK have dropped by 12%

The idea that electric cars can help reduce carbon may seem like a hoax to some, but carbon emissions from new car sales in the UK in 2021 have already dropped by as much as 12%, according to data from the UK’s Automobile Manufacturers and Trade Association.

According to statistics from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders), the carbon emissions of new cars in the UK in 2021 will drop by 11.2% compared with the previous year, with an average of 119.7 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer.

Interestingly, the UK is not the fastest growing country for electric vehicles. Pure electric vehicles accounted for about 12% of new car sales last year. However, due to the low carbon emissions of pure electric vehicles and the growth in sales of petrol electric vehicles, the total carbon emissions of new cars is significant. decline.

From a long-term trend, in the past 20 years, as SUVs have become the darling of the market, but their relative fuel consumption performance is relatively high, the carbon emissions of automobiles have not declined, but have worsened. Now, because of the popularity of pure electric cars and petrol electric cars, it has begun to reverse.

One of the reasons EV sales will continue to grow in 2022 is also related to a shortage of chips. SMMT pointed out that due to limited production capacity, car manufacturers will give priority to the production of key models, and electric vehicles are one of them, because it is related to whether they can meet the government’s carbon reduction targets.

Although electrified vehicles can reduce carbon emissions, overall, there are currently about 4 million vehicles on the UK road, and pure electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles (PHEV) only account for 1.3% of them. It can take several years to more significantly impact overall performance.

This statistic is probably too optimistic, because SMTT only pays attention to the carbon emissions of newly sold vehicles, but does not calculate the carbon emissions of the entire life cycle of the vehicles. Considering the carbon emissions of the production and power generation process, the actual reduction of carbon emissions I am afraid there will be some discounts, but it does not change the fact that electric vehicles can greatly improve carbon emissions.

In the next few years, with green energy, carbon neutral processes and more advanced battery technology, there is no accident that electric vehicles will continue to reduce overall carbon emissions. At present, only the SMMT in the UK has put forward this data, but if we can see Norway in the future The data should be more interesting.

Elon Musk: As long as McDonald’s accepts Dogecoin, I’ll be on TV and eat Happy Kids’ Meal

Musk, the founder of Tesla, made another surprise move. On January 25, he announced that as long as McDonald’s accepts Dogecoin (DOGE) payment, he will publicly eat McDonald’s happy children’s meals on TV.

McDonald’s Happy Meal is a childhood memory of many people. Chicken nuggets, crispy fries, hamburgers and toys that come with meals often give children a very happy experience. Now Tesla founder Elon Musk said on Twitter on the 25th that as long as McDonald’s accepts dogecoin (DOGE) payment, they will eat happy children’s meals with free advertising.

Musk’s behavior immediately attracted a large number of villagers to make pilgrimages. Some people directly marked McDonald’s official Twitter, saying “hurry up and accept Dogecoin, and then you can wait for your business to soar”, and some people magically modified McDonald’s classic Slogan “I’m lovin it” ” into “I’m hodlin it”. Some netizens also changed their head stickers to McDonald’s, saying “your order has been confirmed”.

More villagers posted the recently rumored McDonald’s recruitment meme, showing that McDonald’s decided to open up jobs to save the crypto brothers in order to help the cryptocurrency community that was “in trouble recently”. Another meme picture shows that McDonald’s is full and announced that it will stop hiring; no matter which one reflects the current downturn in the currency market, the group jokes about the atmosphere of going to McDonald’s to work.