According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s national birth rate will be 7.52 per 1,000 in 2021, a decline for five consecutive years. Experts observe that the low birth rate in China is an irreversible trend, and the weakening of the labor force may make it difficult for the economy to overtake the United States.
According to the Voice of America (VOA) report, China is the world’s second largest economy. Institutions such as the British Economic and Business Research Center and the Japan Economic Research Center have estimated that China’s economic aggregate may surpass that of the United States in 2028. However, the decline of China’s labor force will hit the economy, which will become a variable to challenge the dominance of the US economy.
Yi Fuxian, a scholar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States, said that if China is to surpass the U.S. in economic aggregate by 2028, the annual economic growth rate in the next six years must exceed 7%; The weakening that began in 2014, coupled with the rapidly ageing population, makes this target unlikely to be achieved.
Yi Fuxian predicts that between 2030 and 2035, China’s population data will be inferior to that of the United States, which means that China’s economic growth rate will start to be lower than that of the United States in 2035. “China’s economy will never surpass the United States.” Yi Fuxian said frankly that China’s population data has long been suspected of irrigation, which will lead to the Chinese government’s misjudgment of the situation and will also affect the United States’ China policy.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released statistics on January 17. In 2021, there will be 10.62 million births, 10.14 million deaths, a net annual population increase of 480,000, and a natural growth rate of only 0.34 per thousand. The number of births and the net increase in the population both hit new lows since 1962, and the birth rate also fell below 10 per 1,000 again since 2020.
The report quoted Li Mingxuan, an associate professor at the Department of Political Economy of National Sun Yat-Sen University, who analyzed that this shows that most of the Chinese young people are not confident in their future development due to their “flatteningism” (not buying a house, not buying a car, not getting married, not having children, not spending money). , The huge gap between the rich and the poor, high housing prices, and low wages all make the younger generation feel a sense of relative deprivation and see no hope for the future.
Chen Jianfu, director of the Mainland China Research Institute of Tamkang University, pointed out that the low birth rate means that China’s labor force will become increasingly insufficient, which may force domestic industries to be restructured, labor-intensive industries may withdraw from China one by one, or foreign companies will have to pay relatively high labor costs. Labor costs. Population issues are critical and will involve labor costs and industrial restructuring.