East Antarctica’s first ice shelf collapses

East Antarctica experienced record-breaking heat last week, and new satellite images show an ice shelf the size of Rome has collapsed completely at the same time.

East Antarctica experienced an abnormally high temperature last week. The scientific research station Convoy monitored the temperature in the area to soar to minus 11.8 °C on March 18, which was more than 40 °C higher than the average temperature in the past March. A stream of heat from an atmospheric river is trapped over the Antarctic continent.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery showed the complete collapse of the 1,200-square-kilometer Conger Ice shelf around March 15.

Since the satellites were put into observation in the 1970s, the Kanger Ice Shelf has gradually disintegrated, gradually shrinking into an ice belt 50 kilometers long and 20 kilometers wide, one end is connected to the Antarctic continental ice sheet, and the other end is connected to the waters of the Antarctic Ocean. It was connected to Bowman Island until it finally collapsed in March of this year.

The Conger Ice Shelf is small compared to the Larsen B Ice Shelf (3,250 square kilometers) that collapsed more than a decade ago, but ice shelf collapses typically occur in the fast-moving West Antarctica, and East Antarctica is often considered a Larger and more difficult to move stable ice, so it is surprising that the collapse of the Conger Ice Shelf has been observed for the first time since January 2020.

Scientists said that the Conger Ice Shelf is not an important support gateway for the upper ice layer, and it is impossible to say what caused the collapse of the Kanger Ice Shelf, and it will not have a significant impact on the world. The impact of sea level rise can be measured in tens of meters.

Statistics: Nasdaq fell 15% in 2015 with rate hike, recovers lost ground in 7 months

MarketWatch reported on January 23 that Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in an interview on January 22 that data from World War II to date showed that the average time for the S&P 500 to correct its trend (from peak to trough) was 135 days. But it only takes 116 days to recover lost ground.

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Stovall pointed out that the S&P 500 rose 26.89% last year and fell 7.7% so far this year. In the previous 20 cases where the S&P 500 rose at least 20% in one year and fell at least 5% in the next year, if the decline occurred in the first half of the year , 12 times can finally fully recover the lost ground. He also mentioned that the stock market tends to underperform in the second year of a U.S. presidency, with volatility 40% higher in the second year than in the other three years of the presidency.

The Wall Street Journal reported on January 12 that St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said in an interview that day that U.S. long-term inflation expectations appear to be fairly consistent with the 2 percent inflation target.

Bullard pointed out that the “five-year expected inflation rate for the next five years (5y5y)” shows that the market expects inflation to reach 2% in the long run.

5y5y is an indicator of long-term inflation expectations that the Fed is concerned about
The Fed’s long-term inflation expectations indicator, 5y5y, was at 1.98% on January 21, up from 1.92% on January 20 (the lowest since March 1, 2021).

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5y5y reported 2.41% on October 15, 2021, the highest since October 2014, and then fluctuated lower.

The 5y5y average in 2021 will be reported at 2.18%, the same as in 2018. In 2020, 5y5y reported 1.66%, the lowest average since the start of statistics in 2003, and a decrease of 0.96 percentage points from the highest annual average in history (2.62% in 2013).

Nasdaq fell 14% in this wave
According to the FED’s official website, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took its first interest rate hike since the financial crisis on December 16, 2015 (raised the federal funds rate by one yard), and then raised interest rates by another yard in December 2016. In 2017 and 2018, the interest rate was raised three times and four times, each time was 1 yard; from August 2019, it began to enter the interest rate cut cycle.

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The Nasdaq closed at 4,995.36 points on December 15, 2015, then fell volatilely, and closed at 4,266.84 points on February 11, 2016, with a 14.6% decline during this period.

The Nasdaq then closed at 5,022.82 on July 12, 2016, recovering all losses since the first rate hike by the FOMC, and closed at 8,175.42 on July 31, 2019.

The Nasdaq closed at 13,768.92 on January 21, the lowest close since June 3, 2021, and a 14.3% drop from the all-time high closing record (16,057.44) set on November 19, 2021.