The yen won’t keep falling! Standard Chartered experts recommend that you deploy to this price in batches

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the yen fell below the “Kuroda line of defense” of 125 yuan for the first time this week. Liu Jiahao, head of the investment strategy department of the Wealth Management Office of Standard Chartered Bank, said in the “2022 Investment Outlook Conference” today that the Japanese economy is vulnerable to rising energy prices. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalated, it did not rise but fell, failing to show the risk aversion characteristics in the past, but the yen has shown signs of oversold recently, and the dollar against the yen may fall back to 115 yuan.

Liu Jiahao said that the yen is different from the central banks of various countries. European and American countries have started to reduce, and the Bank of Japan still insists on a loose state. Therefore, from the perspective of interest rate differentials, it is indeed not conducive to the performance of the yen. Moreover, when there were geopolitical risks in the past, the yen It may play a role of hedging, but in this Russia-Ukraine conflict, we did not see such a feature at all.

Liu Jiahao pointed out that the main reason is that Japan, as an importer of energy and raw materials, may have a situation where raw materials are rising and energy prices are rising, which will be relatively unfavorable to Japan’s economy. The official start of the subsidy response, so it seems that monetary policy easing and fiscal subsidies will indeed be unfavorable for the yen’s trend in the short term.

From the point of view of the real demand for the yen, Liu Jiahao pointed out that the exchange of foreign exchange can be started in batches now, but if it is a foreign exchange operation investment, from the perspective of the whole year of this year, the yen may still maintain a trend of easy depreciation and difficult to rise, so it is recommended to simply do For foreign exchange operations, for the time being, it is still a wait-and-see approach.

Judging from the role of the yen as a safe haven, Liu Jiahao pointed out that this time is more special because of the background factors, mainly because of the interest rate difference. Both Europe and the United States have released hawkish messages, but the Bank of Japan has instead emphasized the need to continue. Loose, so the spread is a major factor, not just because of the role of hedging.

Liu Jiahao shared that the yen has fallen below the “Kuroda Line of Defense” price of 125 yuan this week. At this stage, the attitude of the central bank of Japan is still relatively loose, so there is an opportunity to test the price of 130 yuan, but the Japanese Minister of Finance has also come out to shout, if The excessive depreciation of the yen may affect the domestic economic situation in Japan.

From the perspective of impact, Liu Jiahao pointed out that at present, it seems that the Bank of Japan will start to pay attention to this wave of sharp depreciation, and the speed of depreciation must be slowed down, because on the one hand, devaluation is beneficial to exports and drives profits for manufacturers, but imports The increase in the cost of the currency may become a double-edged sword, so the follow-up should observe the expectations of the Japanese Ministry of Finance for devaluation.

In the short term, Liu Jiahao pointed out that the yen may remain in the range of 120~125 yuan, and whether it will depreciate further depends on the interest rate spread factor, because the long and short-term interest rate spread of US government bond yields has been shortened. The momentum supporting the outflow of the yen has gradually weakened, so it is not expected that the yen will continue to depreciate, and the yen has been showing signs of oversold recently, and the dollar against the yen may fall back to 115 yuan.

History speaks: How long will it take for U.S. stocks to recover lost ground after interest rate hikes and wars?

In order to defeat the inflation behemoth, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on March 16 that it would raise interest rates by one yard (0.25 percentage points), suggesting that it will raise interest rates 6 times this year! The Fed has finally opened its trump card, but investors are worried: Will raising interest rates be detrimental to the performance of U.S. stocks?

According to Fortune, in theory, higher interest rates should make stocks less attractive, as that means raising borrowing costs for companies and consumers and lowering overall spending.

However, it is clear that the market has long abandoned this old thinking. Even as prices skyrocketed and geopolitical anxiety continued to spread, investors flocked to U.S. stocks. The news that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in 2018 and oil prices pulled back from their highs drove the three major U.S. stock indexes to their biggest gains in more than a year.

Raising interest rates is not a bad thing for U.S. stocks
“The stock market will reflect what’s best for the economy, so if a rate hike is best for the economy, then the stock market will respond,” said Andrew Hiesinger, chief executive of Quant Data, a U.S. market investment firm. In fact, “Forbes” pointed out that if historical data is used as a guide, it can be found that the Fed raising interest rates is not a bad thing.

According to data from Dow Jones Market Data from 1989 to January this year, U.S. stocks performed better during the rate hike cycle – the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 55%, and the S&P 500 index was 62.9% , the Nasdaq index is as high as 102.7%; U.S. stocks also rose during the rate cut stage, but the rise was not as strong as the rate hike. The average increase of the first three indexes was only 23%, 21%, and 32%, respectively.

Market agency Truist Advisory Services further dismantled 12 interest rate hike cycles in U.S. history and found that the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 9.4%, and only one of them had a negative annual return, that is, between 1972 and 1974, The United States was facing a disastrously stagnant inflation crisis at the time.

Forbes also pointed out that rate hikes will weigh on the market in the short term, with mixed performance. Market research firm Evercore ISI analyzed that in the first month after the start of the rate hike cycle, although the S&P 500 fell by an average of 4%, it eventually recovered its lost ground, rising by an average of 3% after half a year, and up to 5% a year later.

The fundamentals of US companies are good, and the impact of war is limited
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services, explained that the reason why U.S. stocks generally rise during the Fed rate hike is that it is usually accompanied by a healthy economic environment and rising profits.

Although the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, inflation continues to deteriorate, and the complex environment makes the market panic, but the “Wall Street Journal” reported that the fundamentals of American companies are strong, which has swept away the anxiety of many investors, even in the face of soaring costs and geopolitical conditions. Political uncertainty, but still profitable. A strong job market will also continue to support U.S. economic growth.

In addition, history shows that war has little impact on U.S. stocks. In the long run, it is corporate revenue and profits that drive stock prices, and geopolitical conflict is not enough to change stock valuations. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, an American brokerage, analyzed the Pearl Harbor incident and a total of 22 major geopolitical conflicts that followed, and found that the S&P 500 fell by an average of 4.8%, taking 19.7 days to correct and another 43.2 days to recover lost ground. Shows that the stock market always has a way to quickly get out of the war.

Therefore, JPMorgan global market strategist Gabriela Santos believes that thanks to strong economic momentum and corporate balance sheets, the United States will not repeat stagnant inflation! But while predicting a rebound in U.S. stocks, investors still need to pay careful attention to three major market risks: the war in Russia and Ukraine affecting commodities, China’s blockade disrupting supply chains, and the ups and downs caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.

Morgan Stanley: TSMC’s N3e process research and development is progressing smoothly, and there is an opportunity for mass production in the first quarter

Foreign media “wccftech” reported that the investment report of foreign investment Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) quoted the social media statement of retired engineers of TSMC, the leading foundry, and visited equipment suppliers. TSMC’s 3nm improved N3e process is progressing smoothly , have the opportunity to obtain more orders, and give TSMC an “outperform” investment rating.

Dalmore said on Twitter that TSMC’s retired engineer said that TSMC will end the N3e process design process before the end of March, which means that N3e will be one quarter earlier than the scheduled third quarter of 2023 mass production, and mass production will begin in the second quarter of 2023. Although the number of N3e transistors is about 8% lower than that of the first-generation 3nm process, it is still about 60% higher than that of the 5nm process, and the reduction of 4 layers of EUV masks makes N3e an important cost and process advantage for TSMC.

The Morgan Stanley report came out after Taiwanese media reported that TSMC’s 3nm process encountered some bottlenecks, and also mentioned the situation of the N3b process. Originally, it was reported that TSMC’s 3nm process encountered some R&D bottlenecks, and customers had to replace it with a relatively mature and stable 5nm process in consideration of yield, but it has not been confirmed.

TSMC President Wei Zhejia mentioned in the third quarter of 2021 that the N3e process performance, yield, and power consumption are better, and it can develop new chip production technology with the processor giant Intel. The third South Korean Samsung capable of developing this node process is rumored to be investigating whether the company’s chip yield report is false.

Game Cards Are Valuable | A Pokémon Is Worth $369,000! Senior players dismantle two valuable points

To get rich by investing, in addition to speculating in stocks and properties, more and more people are buying emerging “assets” that appreciate in value, such as Bitcoin, sneakers, and trendy games. But have you ever thought that a game card can be worth a car, or even the first issue of a floor? According to foreign media reports, in November 2020, a rare Pokémon first-generation fire-breathing dragon card was sold for $369,000.

What is driving the wave of nostalgia that makes childhood playthings now priceless collectibles? Helen, a veteran player who is engaged in the financial industry and has 22 years of experience in collecting Pokémon cards, not only shared his personal collection with reporters, but also dismantled one by one why “high-priced cards” are so valuable!

Pokémon premiered in Japan in 1997, and it has been 24 years since then, but the popularity has not diminished over time, and peripheral products are popular with the public, among which Pokémon cards have become the new favorite in the collection industry. In August 2019, an intact original Charizard card sold for $50,000. But in April 2021, the same card was sold for $360,000 at the American auction house “Goldin Auctions”, which attracted much attention.

Pokémon card originates from the Trading Card Game (TCG), which refers to the game played by using special cards sold. Players play one-on-one two-player battles according to specific rules, ​a set of cards There are 60 cards, and there are three different types of cards, namely Pokémon, Energy and Trainer. The stronger the Pokémon’s attack power, the more advantageous it is in the game.

Helen has been exposed to Pokémon cards since he was a child. When he grew up, he began to collect a large number of cards. At first, he wanted to get back his old feelings, but gradually he collected thousands of cards. Most of the cards were drawn, and they were also purchased online or exchanged with friends .

She revealed that on average, new game cards are released every two years, and the old ones will be “retired”. Some players who are mainly participating in the game may give up the cards in their hands. She starts with these players and saves them now. A better set of first-generation cards was purchased from the champion of Hong Kong for only $70 that year, including 12 Pokémon cards with a market value of at least tens of thousands of dollars.

However, there are some cards that these players will not put on sale. “For example, after winning each war zone, you will get two champion cards, which are of commemorative value. When you bought the first-generation cards back then, they all picked them up and refused to sell them.”