After the war between Russia and Ukraine, the second country flicks its tail, and Canada announces that it will purchase F-35 fighter jets

Since Russia and Ukraine went to war on February 24, Germany immediately decided to purchase 35 F-35 fighter jets to replace the Tornado. Yesterday, Canada also changed its attitude since 2012 and announced that it would purchase 88 F-35s to replace the old CF-18A/B. with the F/A-18A/B fighter.

In the F-35 development stage, Canada has invested 150 million US dollars in the JSF program.

However, in 2012, the country cancelled the procurement case because the price was too high, which made the bidding case have to run again. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in 2015 that he would seek fighter jets other than the F-35 as an alternative, so The Canadian fighter jet bidding case has been in operation for many years.

After eliminating the French Rafale and European Typhoon fighters, the Boeing-proposed F/A-18E/F Block III Super Hornet was also eliminated in December last year, leaving the F-35A and the Swedish JAS-39E Griffin. The (Gripen-E) fighter enters the final stage.

Yesterday, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand announced that the country will spend 19 billion Canadian dollars (about 15.2 billion U.S. dollars) to purchase 88 F-35As to replace a total of 93 CF-18A/B and F/A-18A/B in active duty. .

Annand said the Canadian and U.S. governments and Lockheed Martin would move to the final stages of the procurement process after “rigorous evaluation and discussion,” while the Canadian military would improve two current major air bases, Cypress in Quebec. Bogotvill and Cold Lake in Alberta to ensure smooth future operations of the F-35A.

In terms of the candidate models of this bidding case, the F-35, as the only fifth-generation stealth fighter, is technically superior to the other four-and-a-half-generation fighters, but considering the JAS-39E in the final selection stage, it is obviously a Considering the budget, it is believed that the JAS-39E with the lowest overall price can meet the needs of Canadian air defense.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, not only European countries hurriedly rearmed their armaments, but it also quickly shortened the Canadian government’s consideration of choosing a new fighter aircraft. The F-35A’s technological and combat advantages immediately became the most important consideration at this time.

Canada’s largest military investment in three decades is expected to begin receiving its first F-35As in 2025, making it the 17th country to field the Lightning II.

In addition to sending Ukraine’s star pattern, the United Kingdom will deploy the Tianjian air defense system in Poland

Three weeks after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United Kingdom is one of the largest arms supporters in Ukraine other than the United States. In addition to last week’s announcement to support 100 sets of star-patterned shoulder-launched air defense missiles, it also recently announced that it will deploy the newly developed Tianjian air defense system in Poland to reduce Allied air defense burden.

In response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated calls for NATO allies to continue to support air defense weapons systems, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace handed over the latest air defense weapons to Poland and Ukraine within two weeks to help the front line resist Russian air threats.

The star-patterned missile was launched by Thales Air Defence in Northern Ireland in 1997. It can be launched by a single soldier shoulder-launched, vehicle-launched or ground-mounted in three modes. The body is 1.4 meters, diameter 13 cm, Weight 14 kg.

The star pattern adopts two-stage rocket propulsion. After the second stage rocket starts, the maximum speed can reach Mach 3.5 per hour, which is faster than the American Stinger missile, the Chinese Hongying 6 (HN-6) and the Russian needle 1 (Igla-1). 1) The 2.2~2.5 Mach height is currently the fastest individual air defense missile system in the world.

The star pattern is the same as similar products in other countries. It adopts semi-automatic guidance within the line of sight. After the missile is launched, the shooter needs to keep the sight at the target to guide the missile. Therefore, the faster the missile, the shorter the exposure time of the launch crew.

Sky Sabre is a land-based version of the Common Air Defense Modular Missile (CAMM) developed by MBDA’s British and Italian branches. The CAMM sea-based version of the Sea Ceptor entered service in 2018, the first mass-produced land-based missile. The Sky Sabre only entered service with the British Army in December last year.

CAMM is divided into general version and Zengcheng version (ER), the projectile length is 3.2~4.2 meters, the diameter is 16.6~19 cm, the weight is 99~160 kg, the maximum range is 25~45 kilometers, and the maximum speed is up to Mach 4. It adopts active radar guidance. It belongs to the latest generation of anti-aircraft missile systems.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Poland not only accepted a large number of refugees, but also the border is not far from the big city of Lviv in western Ukraine. The Russian air strikes on the Ussi region have also greatly increased the pressure on Poland’s air defense, so NATO allies are required to support the air defense system.

Although NATO insisted not to set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine’s airspace to avoid a head-on conflict with Russia, the support of a large number of anti-aircraft missiles also put the Russian Air Force and Army helicopters at great threat. Complete air supremacy gives Ukrainian guerrilla action more space.

Why not cut off the Ukrainian Internet? Because the Russian army has to use it

Before the Russian army entered Ukraine, the outside world believed that Moscow would first use a large-scale cyber attack to cut off Ukraine’s communications before driving in the chariots. The road is still quite clear, and experts believe that it may be related to the fact that the Russian army itself also relies on the local network.

Due to the mixed warfare offensive of the Russian army in Crimea in 2014, it successfully confuses and delays the reaction time of the West and achieves the record of winning the Donbas and Crimea. The world has a great sense of Russia’s network and information attack capabilities. shock.

Therefore, before February 24, media and experts from various countries predicted that if the Russian army attacked, it should first use a large-scale network attack to interfere with communication nodes such as Ukraine’s power grid, radio and television, and mobile networks, causing communication in the country. The black hole, combined with false news such as the fall of the capital and the flight of the president, first disintegrated the morale of the Ukrainian military and civilian resistance, and replicated the successful model of Crimea.

In an interview with Defense One, a U.S. Pentagon official pointed out that although the Russian military’s cyber offensive was indeed observed during the war, the scope of the impact was too small, and no major damage was caused except for the interruption of communication in a few areas and the bombing of the TV tower. .

The reason for not completely cutting off the communication network in Ukraine may be that after the attack, the Russian army discovered that the local communication infrastructure is still of great use to itself, especially in the coordination of the Russian army attack in the enemy’s territory. It may not be possible to rely on it alone. The communication facilities provided by the Russian army were carried out.

Retired Major General John Ferrari of the U.S. Army pointed out that the scale of the Russian military offensive was much larger than that during the Crimea crisis, so the demand for communication traffic was quite huge. The new “Warfighting Information Network-Tactical, WIN-T” system in , also encountered many difficulties in progress.

Major General Ferrari said that after entering Ukraine, the Russian army may need to rely on smartphones and local mobile networks for coordination and navigation due to the fact that the progress of the war is not as expected, the need for communication between multiple fronts is too great, and the communication facilities are insufficient. Disrupting the local network can actually hinder your own actions. In addition, Russia also needs to monitor the movements of the Ukrainian military and civilian resistance forces through local networks.

For the Russian military, cutting off the communication network can dampen the Ukrainian government’s efforts to rally morale and win international public opinion, but it may put front-line troops at greater risk and increase the chance of getting lost, mistakenly attacked or ambushed, so Moscow may need more. measure over time.

The information war started simultaneously, and the Ukrainian military received a large number of heart war messages and was attacked by DDoS

The second is to confuse cognitive types, such as pretending that Ukrainian officers and soldiers say “The commander of Kramatrosk has run away, the situation is very bad, and many of us have to dodge.” or “Derba Debaltseve’s troops and volunteers have been killed, we should flee!” Such messages try to confuse the morale of Ukrainian troops on the front lines.

There was also a text message pretending to be the central government of Kiev, which read, “Your account balance has been adjusted to 10 hryvnia (approximately TWD 9.50), and the country thanks you for your contribution to the anti-terrorist mission in the east.”

Because Russia has more advanced electronic warfare equipment, it can quickly locate and send text messages from the mobile phones of Ukrainian soldiers, and use the methods commonly used by fraud groups.

For example, first send “Leave, or you will die!” to the mobile phone of the Ukrainian army officer and soldier, and then send a message to the soldier’s family, telling them that “your son (husband) is dead,” and then call the soldier’s mobile phone when the line is busy, or immediately shelling The location of the mobile phone signal makes it impossible for the family to contact their relatives on the front line at the moment, causing panic in the rear.

Since yesterday, the Russian cyber army has carried out DDoS attacks on the Ukrainian government and military networks. With the influx of large-scale traffic in an instant, the network has been paralyzed. In the past few days, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and many enterprises, banks website, often unavailable.

The UK’s National Cyber ​​Security Centre (NCSC) has warned that the Sandworm threat actor, a hacker group controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency GRU (GRU), is focusing its cyberattacks on Ukraine.

Sandworm has used VPNFilter malware many times before, targeting unsuspecting routers or cloud hard drives on the corporate network. After hacking, the files are locked. Many European and American companies have been hit before, and were only recovered after being extorted by Sandworm for ransom. material.

NATO, to assist Ukraine in resisting the Russian cyber offensive, has dispatched a cyber army to Kiev consisting of experts from Poland, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Croatia and Romania.

Although Ukraine itself is not as strong as Russia in electronic and information warfare, it has learned to use some techniques to confuse the enemy on the front line over the years.

For example, many Ukrainian front-line bunkers will hang the American flag, or deliberately use English for radio communication, pretending to be a member of the U.S. Navy SEAL or a member of the Green Flat Cap Special Forces, commanding operations on the front line, etc., to confuse the Ukrainian separatist forces or the Russian army. members, so that the other party does not dare to attack rashly.

At present, the Russian-Ukrainian war has officially started. It is expected that the Russian army will greatly increase the intensity of information warfare. The combat effect has yet to be confirmed by follow-up observation.

Russia says withdrawing troops, White House: No evidence seen

On the 15th, the Russian military said that some troops were withdrawing from the vicinity of Ukraine. European and American stock markets rose across the board, while oil and gold prices fell. But U.S. President Biden said in a statement that the U.S. has not confirmed Russia’s claims, and there is still an obvious possibility of an invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin also did not commit to a full withdrawal of troops, saying that it depends on the follow-up situation. The outside world believes that the release of the withdrawal license is only for negotiation, and Putin will do everything in his power to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

On the 15th, the Russian Ministry of Defense released photos of tanks and howitzers driving on the rail platform, as well as tanks driving in the snow, saying that these military deployments are returning to the base, but did not disclose the location and time of the photos, nor the whereabouts of the vehicles. The U.S. is also skeptical of Moscow’s intentions, with Biden saying sanctions against Russia could have a major blow to the U.S. economy, including rising prices and disrupting energy supplies, but stressing that “if we don’t support freedoms at risk today, tomorrow There will definitely be a higher price to pay.”

CNN reported that if the Russian-Ukrainian crisis pushes oil prices to around $110 a barrel, U.S. inflation will exceed 10%. JPMorgan Chase warned that any disruption to the Russian oil trade would see oil prices rise above $120, and that if oil rose to $110, U.S. gross domestic product would lose about 1% next year.

Putin insists that Ukraine cannot join NATO, so the move would pose a major security threat to Russia. When the German Chancellor met Putin on the 15th, he promised that NATO expansion was not on the agenda, but Putin said, “They told us that it will not happen tomorrow. When will it happen? The day after tomorrow? History makes no difference.”

Biden said 150,000 Russian troops were now concentrated near Ukraine and Belarus, up from an earlier U.S. estimate of 130,000. “Russia claims the withdrawal is fine, but we haven’t confirmed that. In fact, our analysts say Ukraine is still in a very dangerous situation,” he said.

Ukraine also expressed skepticism about Russia’s withdrawal statement, saying it had to see it. The NATO secretary general also said that so far he has seen no sign of Russia reducing its military presence on the Ukrainian border, adding that NATO would like to see a large and sustained withdrawal of troops. However, the cyber-attack war has already begun, with a series of cyber-attacks on the Ukrainian military, the Ministry of Defense and major banking websites on the 15th. But the U.S. said it had not yet identified who was behind it.

Russia is a producer of many commodities, ranking first in the production of natural gas, oil, nickel, palladium, copper, coal, potash, wheat, etc. Disruptions to Russian exports, regardless of Putin’s decision or economic sanctions, will push up the cost of goods, exacerbating global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.

Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium to catalytic converters that clean vehicle exhaust, and an intrusion could disrupt the teetering auto supply chain. In 2018, in order to fight against Russia, the United States launched actions against seven major Russian chaebols and related companies, including Rusal, a Russian aluminum producer. Since Rusal is the world’s third aluminum and alumina producer, it accounts for 6% of global aluminum and alumina production. U.S. sanctions have sent aluminum prices soaring 30 percent.

The Russian army is pressing on the border, and the Ukrainian armed drone swarm may offset the numerical advantage

At present, Russia has gathered about 130,000 troops to approach the Ukrainian border. Under the threat of the Russian military with absolute advantages in quantity and technology, the TB2 armed drone that Ukraine purchased from Turkey last year may be able to offset part of the gap between the two militaries.

Ukraine received the first batch of TB-2 UAVs from Turkey in 2019. They were developed by the Turkish company Baykar. The fuselage is 6.5 meters long and has a wingspan of 12 meters. It can carry 150 kilograms of ammunition or reconnaissance equipment. The speed reaches 220 kilometers per hour, the combat range is 150 kilometers, and the longest airborne time is 27 hours.

TB2 can use lasers to guide army artillery battalions or air force attack aircraft to carry out bombing missions from 20 kilometers away, and can also carry anti-armor missiles to attack by itself. Most of the existing Russian air defense radars cannot detect UAVs of this size. In addition, the price of Turkish products is much cheaper than that of European and American products. In the case that Europe and the United States do not sell drones based on political and military considerations, TB-2 has become the first choice of many countries.

The TB-2 has proven its operational efficiency many times during the civil wars in Libya and Syria, and in the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war, it turned the tide for Turkish-backed Azerbaijan, destroying a large number of Armenian armored vehicles.

According to the Wall Street Journal, during October last year, a mechanized infantry brigade in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine was attacked by Russian-backed separatist forces using Russian-made D-30 152mm howitzers. After the organization communicated, the TB-2 was immediately dispatched to the area of ​​​​the exchange of fire, and a 15-pound bomb was used to destroy the howitzer. This was the first time that the Ukrainian army conducted an attack mission with a drone.

Kiev sent a TB-2 to counterattack, which immediately aroused Russia’s vigilance and protested to NATO through diplomatic channels, especially Turkey, which sold UAVs to Ukraine, claiming that NATO’s delivery of Ukraine’s advanced UAV systems was an attempt to threaten Russia’s national security. .

Igor Kopytin, a member of the National Defense Industry and Science and Technology Subcommittee of the Ukrainian Congress, said that having a weapon system such as the TB-2 gives Ukraine more confidence in the face of the Russian army, because the actual combat from Azerbaijan and Donbass During the process, it was proved that the Russian air defense radar used by the enemy could not effectively grasp the position of the drone.

Therefore, Turkish President Erdogan signed a contract with Ukrainian President Zelensky during his visit to Kiev in early February to build a TB-2 production plant in the south of Kiev. The Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer Ivchenko- Ivchenko-Progress, in cooperation with Bekal, can significantly reduce the follow-up cost of TB-2 procurement in Ukraine.

Although the TB-2 performed well in the counterattack mission last October, the survivability of this drone has yet to be verified in the face of a large-scale war of hundreds of thousands of levels. Turkish military analyst Arda Mevlutoglu pointed out that after all, the Russian military The number and technological superiority of Syria is not comparable to that of Armenia.

In response to the drone production agreement signed at the summit between Ukraine and Turkey this month, a Kremlin spokesman once again said that the agreement will not help resolve the internal divisions in Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded that any Decisions to help the Ukrainian army defend its territory will continue.

Sullivan: Russia could invade Ukraine at any time

烏克蘭局勢|沙利文:俄羅斯隨時可能入侵烏克蘭

The U.S. and its allies are prepared for any scenario that develops in Ukraine, including a Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev, said Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, in an interview with Hossein News.

Russia’s satellite news agency Rosatom quoted Sullivan as saying on Feb. 6 that the U.S. assesses that Russia “could invade Ukraine any day or two weeks from now, or opt for a diplomatic solution. Russia denies that it has plans to invade its neighboring country.

My job is not to predict when that will happen, but to be prepared for any scenario, including a Russian invasion of Ukraine’s capital,” Sullivan said.

Russia: No major breakthrough expected in Franco-Russian consular talks

The Russian Kremlin on Feb. 7 called French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Russia and his meeting with President Vladimir Putin important to resolving tensions in Ukraine, but did not expect a major breakthrough in the talks.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who spoke to the media ahead of the Putin-Macron meeting, said the issue of Ukraine is too complex to expect significant changes from a single meeting.

Nevertheless, he called Macron’s visit to Russia “very important” because France is one of the leading countries in Europe and is also holding the rotating presidency of the European Union. He expects “very substantive and long” discussions between Putin and Macron when they meet later on the 2nd.

He said, “Macron also told Putin that (his trip was aimed at) coming up with ideas to find possible ways to ease tensions in Europe, and he will share those ideas with Putin.

Peskov said the meeting between the two began at 5 p.m. Moscow time (10 p.m. Hong Kong time) on Feb. 2, after which they would have a one-on-one lunch.

Macron’s visit to Russia on Feb. 7 and Ukraine on Feb. 8 is part of a diplomatic effort by the West to try to de-escalate the crisis.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also meet with Macron and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Berlin on the 8th.

U.S. assesses Russian army can take Kiev, Ukraine in 48 hours Russian ambassador: Washington is asking for war

Several foreign media quoted U.S. officials as saying on Feb. 6 that Russia has amassed about 70 percent of the combat power needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks. They also said that if the Russians invade Ukraine, troops could take over the capital Kiev and overthrow President Zelensky within 48 hours, which coincides with what a supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.

Konstantin Malofeev, a close ally of Putin and a wealthy Russian businessman, told Russian media Znak that it would take “48 hours at most” for Russian troops to invade Ukraine because Kyiv is so “outnumbered”.

The open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be a war, or at least not a long-term war, because the difference in military power between Russia and the enemy is so great that Russia can only take actions to force peace,” he said.

He claimed Ukraine is now under the control of U.S. and British – “Anglo-Saxon” – intelligence agencies. He said the “invasion” has begun and that U.S. and British special forces are already in Ukraine. He said Russia also knows that Canadian special forces are in the country. He said it was expected that they might carry out provocations in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, not the Ukrainians.

The British media quoted two U.S. officials as saying that in the past two weeks, the number of Russian battalion tactical groups deployed at the border has increased from 60 to 83, which is 70% of the military capacity needed for Putin to do so if he wants to make a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In addition, there are still 14 battalion tactical groups on the ground. Each battalion tactical group has about 750 troops.

They say they expect the ground to freeze and harden starting in mid-February, allowing Moscow to move more heavy equipment. The officials did not provide evidence for their assessment, saying the information was based on intelligence and could not provide details because of the sensitivity of the content.

Many U.S. and British media outlets, including the Washington Post, quoted U.S. officials as saying on May 5 that if Russia did invade Ukraine, it could kill up to 50,000 civilians, and they estimated that Russian forces would attack Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, which would fall within days, causing millions of refugees to flee to Europe. They estimate that if Russia launches a full-scale war against Ukraine, 25,000 to 50,000 civilians will be killed or wounded, 5,000 to 25,000 soldiers will be killed or wounded in Ukraine, and about 3,000 to 10,000 people will be killed or wounded in the Russian army.

They said Russia would probably only invade Ukraine on a limited basis, but did not think Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the final decision. He also added that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

Russia may admit to attacking Ukraine
After the German newspaper “Pictur” reported that the Russian army plans to annex Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on May 5 that the article exceeded all possible limits of human morality and ethics.

Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya called the U.S. officials “almost asking” for the Russian invasion to happen. You (the U.S.) want it to happen, you’re waiting for it to happen, as if you want your word to be true,” he said.

The U.S. government has sent additional U.S. troops to Eastern Europe in response to the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, which arrived in Poland on May 5. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said she was considering sending more troops to Lithuania in response to the situation in Ukraine.

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