The exchange rate of the US dollar against the yen fell below the “Kuroda line of defense” of 125 yuan for the first time this week. Liu Jiahao, head of the investment strategy department of the Wealth Management Office of Standard Chartered Bank, said in the “2022 Investment Outlook Conference” today that the Japanese economy is vulnerable to rising energy prices. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalated, it did not rise but fell, failing to show the risk aversion characteristics in the past, but the yen has shown signs of oversold recently, and the dollar against the yen may fall back to 115 yuan.
Liu Jiahao said that the yen is different from the central banks of various countries. European and American countries have started to reduce, and the Bank of Japan still insists on a loose state. Therefore, from the perspective of interest rate differentials, it is indeed not conducive to the performance of the yen. Moreover, when there were geopolitical risks in the past, the yen It may play a role of hedging, but in this Russia-Ukraine conflict, we did not see such a feature at all.
Liu Jiahao pointed out that the main reason is that Japan, as an importer of energy and raw materials, may have a situation where raw materials are rising and energy prices are rising, which will be relatively unfavorable to Japan’s economy. The official start of the subsidy response, so it seems that monetary policy easing and fiscal subsidies will indeed be unfavorable for the yen’s trend in the short term.
From the point of view of the real demand for the yen, Liu Jiahao pointed out that the exchange of foreign exchange can be started in batches now, but if it is a foreign exchange operation investment, from the perspective of the whole year of this year, the yen may still maintain a trend of easy depreciation and difficult to rise, so it is recommended to simply do For foreign exchange operations, for the time being, it is still a wait-and-see approach.
Judging from the role of the yen as a safe haven, Liu Jiahao pointed out that this time is more special because of the background factors, mainly because of the interest rate difference. Both Europe and the United States have released hawkish messages, but the Bank of Japan has instead emphasized the need to continue. Loose, so the spread is a major factor, not just because of the role of hedging.
Liu Jiahao shared that the yen has fallen below the “Kuroda Line of Defense” price of 125 yuan this week. At this stage, the attitude of the central bank of Japan is still relatively loose, so there is an opportunity to test the price of 130 yuan, but the Japanese Minister of Finance has also come out to shout, if The excessive depreciation of the yen may affect the domestic economic situation in Japan.
From the perspective of impact, Liu Jiahao pointed out that at present, it seems that the Bank of Japan will start to pay attention to this wave of sharp depreciation, and the speed of depreciation must be slowed down, because on the one hand, devaluation is beneficial to exports and drives profits for manufacturers, but imports The increase in the cost of the currency may become a double-edged sword, so the follow-up should observe the expectations of the Japanese Ministry of Finance for devaluation.
In the short term, Liu Jiahao pointed out that the yen may remain in the range of 120~125 yuan, and whether it will depreciate further depends on the interest rate spread factor, because the long and short-term interest rate spread of US government bond yields has been shortened. The momentum supporting the outflow of the yen has gradually weakened, so it is not expected that the yen will continue to depreciate, and the yen has been showing signs of oversold recently, and the dollar against the yen may fall back to 115 yuan.
Jason Tech & Finance News 